Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual>=12h 89.2%Líder entre 15 opciones
Pronosticadores
34
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+0.9 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado8 ago 25, 23:05 UTC30 oct 26, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
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KalshiReglas
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for any Grok 5 model released within a month of the first Grok 5 announcement.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
- As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.
- [image]Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.
- @gZsNQCnsuh (this market)