Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualMerch store 100%Líder entre 31 opciones
Pronosticadores
208
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+1.2 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado5 ene 26, 23:40 UTC1 ene 27, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
Which features will Manifold ship in 2026? The feature must appear live on the site before the end of 2026.
- (External PRs that have been merged will count.)
- Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the named outcome: Must be a real subscription (not a one-time purchase without automatic monthly payments).
- Can potentially be in Mana rather than real currency.
- Update 2026-05-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the named outcome: This answer does not need to be implemented by the Manifold team directly — external PRs that have been merged will also count toward resolution.
Mercados abiertos
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt12.6%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.7%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 87,4 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-8.5pt65%
- November 30,-5.0pt50%
+7 resultados más
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 228,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt19.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.7%
+7 resultados más
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 239,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 53,3 mil €
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Best AI this week
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Manifold features launched in 2026?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Merch store al 100% a fecha de 20 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Manifold features launched in 2026?
- Está previsto que Manifold features launched in 2026 se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Manifold features launched in 2026?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Which features will Manifold ship in 2026? The feature must appear live on the site before the end of 2026.