Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual2026- 26.3%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado2 dic 25, 21:58 UTC30 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketReglas
The market resolves to the first year in which an AI system achieves above 90% on the single shot avg solve rate on all puzzles in the Sudoku benchmark hosted at https://pub.sakana.ai/sudoku/.
- Resolution will be determined by the official results published on that benchmark page.
- If no AI system reaches 90% accuracy by the end of 2030, the market resolves to "2031+".
- Top score as of 2025.12.02 is 33% by gpt-5 high.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de In what year will an AI achieve 90%+ on Sudoku bench??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2026- al 26% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve In what year will an AI achieve 90%+ on Sudoku bench??
- Está previsto que In what year will an AI achieve 90%+ on Sudoku bench? se resuelva el 30 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida In what year will an AI achieve 90%+ on Sudoku bench??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The market resolves to the first year in which an AI system achieves above 90% on the single shot avg solve rate on all puzzles in the Sudoku benchmark hosted at https://pub.sakana.ai/sudoku/.