In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
One-OffIATecnología2aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual2026 93.6%Líder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado7 jul 25, 7:13 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
0.5%
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PolymarketReglas
SWE-bench Verified is a 500-task, human-vetted slice of the SWE-bench dataset that removes ambiguous or unsolvable issues.
- Each task corresponds to a real GitHub bug-fix; success is measured only by whether the submitted patch makes all repository tests pass.
- Reaching 95 % would imply an agent that can reliably read unfamiliar codebases, localise bugs, implement multi-file patches, and satisfy rigorous unit tests—approaching or surpassing strong human-engineer performance on day-to-day bug-fixing.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to the year-bracket in which a fully automated AI system first records an average accuracy of 95 % or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark.
- Verification – The claim must be confirmed by either
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2026 al 94% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark??
- Está previsto que In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: SWE-bench Verified is a 500-task, human-vetted slice of the SWE-bench dataset that removes ambiguous or unsolvable issues.