In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
One-OffHealth & MedicineCiencia16aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 85%
Pronosticadores
42
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado17 feb 23, 4:38 UTC2 ene 43, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?
Manifold MarketsIn twenty years, the best evidence will suggest that sperm counts are substantially declining across most of the world
Manifold MarketsWill credible evidence show that OpenAI deliberately staged the July 2026 Hugging Face incident by January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsEvidence of life out of Earth by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
KalshiReglas
Related to ACX post "Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know".
- Although this says "in at least one country", this is just about whether one country is able to detect it, and I will only mark it as true if it seems to be related to a global phenomenon; ie if there is a chemical spill in one country that causes its fertility to decrease, this will not count.
