IF there is a war between China and the United States, will China use ICBMs to deliver non-nuclear strikes to the US?
GeopolíticaOne-OffChina13a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 75.5%
No 75.5%Pronosticadores
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Actualizado hace 53 minutos
Retrasado18 dic 23, 5:48 UTC1 ene 40, 15:59 UTC
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The US has for decades operated under the understanding that neither it nor its adversaries would use ICBMs to deliver non-nuclear payloads because they would be indistinguishable from a first-use nuclear strike*, which would mean their use would risk a nuclear response even before they hit.
- However, there is a growing school of thought that China may disagree with this doctrinally, and may not bind itself by the same restriction.
- *clearly this statement can be interrogated
- https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/China-expanding-ways-to-target-continental-U.S.-Pentagon-report-says
- Resolves NA if there is no war between China and the US before 2040.
- Resolves YES if China uses Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles to strike the continental US or Hawaii (not US Territories), and those missiles deliver non-nuclear payloads.
