Pronóstico comunitario actual
It won't, because <insert engineering scheme here> 43%Líder entre 11 opciones
Pronosticadores
24
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado29 sept 22, 15:30 UTC1 ene 00, 5:00 UTC
Tendencias
0.1%
0%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will most physicists believe in a version of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis by 2030?
Manifold MarketsDoes the universe rotate?
Manifold MarketsIs Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiReglas
Resolves once there's a strong scientific consensus on the answer, or a consensus that we can't know the answer until it happens.
- In the latter case, I'll resolve with equal probability to all the options that haven't been ruled out.
- Duplicate answers will be ignored, only the first to be submitted counts.
- Catch-all answers are ignored, I'll resolve to a more specific one.
Mercados abiertos
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 103,1 mil €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volumen total
- 57,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 57,4 mil €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 resultados más
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volumen total
- 817,9 mil €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de How will the universe end??
- Manifold Markets cotiza It won't, because <insert engineering scheme here> al 43% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve How will the universe end??
- Está previsto que How will the universe end? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2200.
- ¿Cómo se liquida How will the universe end??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves once there's a strong scientific consensus on the answer, or a consensus that we can't know the answer until it happens.