Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 79.3%
Pronosticadores
36
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado28 may 23, 9:50 UTC1 ene 01, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will most physicists believe in a version of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis by 2030?
Manifold MarketsIs the Riemann hypothesis correct?
Manifold MarketsHow will the universe end?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Resolves once 90% of cosmologists and theoretical physicists agree one way or the other, according to multiple reputable surveys taken at least 70 years after market creation.
- So the market must remain open for at least 70 years (until May 28, 2093) to allow time for the idea to be considered thoroughly.
- After this, the market resolves as soon as at least 90% expert consensus is reached on the matter according to two or more independent surveys.
- The market does not resolve if some reputable surveys say 90% of experts think YES and some say that 90% think NO simultaneously (i.e., the survey findings have to come to the same conclusions on what the consensus is).
- It will only resolve once all up-to-date surveys agree on the consensus.
- Some info on the mathematical universe hypothesis can be found here.
Mercados abiertos
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 226,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 125,2 mil €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 resultados más
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 28,6 M €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 108,3 mil €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volumen total
- 1,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,2 mil €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 resultados más
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
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- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Is Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 79% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Is Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct??
- Está previsto que Is Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2501.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Is Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves once 90% of cosmologists and theoretical physicists agree one way or the other, according to multiple reputable surveys taken at least 70 years after market creation.