Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 78.7%
Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado18 oct 25, 20:25 UTC31 dic 27, 20:14 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
PolymarketReglas
This market resolves YES if Elon Musk says he considers Grok 5 to be AGI.
- Grok 5 means the model and variations named Grok 5 (Grok 5 Pro, Grok 5 Code, Grok 5 Fast), and any of them being called AGI will count.
- A Grok 5.5, 5.1, 5.7, or other number variation wouldn't count.
- Elon has to refer to it as full AGI, not "very close to" or "at moments", or similar partial statements.
- The definition of AGI will be the one Elon uses too: "Capable of doing anything a human with a computer can do", though Grokipedia could be used as a secondary source.
- Date will be extended if necessary until Grok 5 releases.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
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KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
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- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 79% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk??
- Está previsto que Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves YES if Elon Musk says he considers Grok 5 to be AGI.