Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBefore 2026-11-01 99.5%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
17
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+4.5 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado31 ago 26, 14:57 UTC1 dic 26, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
99.5%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by which date?
PolymarketGemini 4.0 (Google) release date
Manifold MarketsWhen will Google release Gemini 4?
KalshiWhen will Google release Gemini 3.5 pro?
Manifold MarketsWill Google release "Gemini 3.5 Pro" to the public before October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
The '+' means any version at or above 3.8 counts: if Google skips 3.8 and releases Gemini 3.9 Flash or Gemini 4 Flash, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Only a Flash model counts — Pro and Flash-Lite releases do not resolve this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Gemini 3.8 Flash, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Before 2026-11-01 al 100% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date?
- Está previsto que Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date se resuelva el 1 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The '+' means any version at or above 3.8 counts: if Google skips 3.8 and releases Gemini 3.9 Flash or Gemini 4 Flash, that still counts for the purpose of this market.