Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualBefore May 2027 93.7%+43.7ptLíder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+43.7 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado28 oct 26, 22:03 UTC1 may 27, 3:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketReglas
The '+' means any version at or above 5.6 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.6 and releases Claude Fable 5.7 or Fable 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude Fable 5.6, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
