Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualBefore 2027-04-01 94.5%+44.5ptLíder entre 9 opciones
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+44.5 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado28 oct 26, 22:03 UTC1 abr 27, 3:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
How low will the Claude Opus 4.8 input token price get in 2026?
KalshiWill "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsHow low will the Claude Opus 4.8 output token price get in 2026?
KalshiWhat will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketWill "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Insights into Claude Opus 4.5 from Pokémon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsReglas
The '+' means any version at or above 5.6 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.6 and releases Claude Opus 5.7 or Opus 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude Opus 5.6, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.