Will "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
IAOne-Off4mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 86.4%
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5
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado11 sept 25, 16:26 UTC1 feb 27, 0:00 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
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- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
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- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 86% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Está previsto que Will "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? se resuelva el 1 de febrero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.