Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
X = 5 100%Líder entre 13 opciones
Pronosticadores
22
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado15 ene 24, 16:54 UTC31 dic 27, 18:29 UTC
Tendencias
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027?
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PolymarketReglas
Currently the SOTA has 4.80% resolves "with assistance":
- [image]For the unassisted leaderboard, please refer to the following market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/firstuserhere/ai-resolves-at-least-x-on-swebench)Leaderboard live:
- (https://www.swebench.com/)
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
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+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
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- 1480+-2.5pt66%
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- 1500+-3.0pt23%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028??
- Manifold Markets cotiza X = 5 al 100% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028??
- Está previsto que AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Currently the SOTA has 4.80% resolves "with assistance":