Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
2026 84.7%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado14 ago 24, 15:18 UTC22 ene 30, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?
Manifold MarketsAI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketReglas
Resolves to the first year in which https://www.swebench.com posts a 90% resolved score in the “verified” category.
- The current score is 38.80% by Amazon Q Developer Agent.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will SWE-bench be solved??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2026 al 85% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will SWE-bench be solved??
- Está previsto que When will SWE-bench be solved? se resuelva el 22 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will SWE-bench be solved??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves to the first year in which https://www.swebench.com posts a 90% resolved score in the “verified” category.