Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual20000-24999 22.9%Líder entre 14 opciones
Pronosticadores
22
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+1.3 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado20 may 26, 15:40 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolves based on the consensus/best estimate of the suspected case count at the end of the epidemic, probably using numbers released by the WHO or on the Wikipedia page, unless there's good reason to believe that they have stopped updating these numbers reliably (this is probably unlikely).
- https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ituri_Province_Ebola_epidemic
- If the epidemic expands into a pandemic or continues into 2027, the market will be extended as necessary.
- The "Other" category means any case counts larger than the current buckets.
- I may add more higher buckets from the "Other" category as necessary (if you're new to Manifold, don't worry, if you bet on Other, your shares will automatically be transferred onto any new buckets split off, this is fine and normal).
