Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 64.1%
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado24 jul 26, 15:49 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if at least two (2) of the top five (5) AI models ranked on the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) general leaderboard are open-weight or open-source as of December 31, 2027.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Primary Source: The official Epoch Capabilities Index leaderboard at epoch.ai/benchmarks/eci.
- Top 5 Ranking: Ranking is determined by the ECI general capabilities score.
- If multiple sizes or post-training variants of the same model series are listed (e.g., a base version and an instruct version, or different parameter sizes of the same model line), only the single highest-scoring version will be counted toward the top 5.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de 2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 64% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve 2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)?
- Está previsto que 2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI) se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida 2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria