Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027?
IAOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 50.5%
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3
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado12 ago 26, 15:59 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Within a year we might get open source models with the cyber capabilities of Mythos.
- One possible way to release such a model without causing a cyber apocalypse would be to differentially reduce cyber capabilities in the released weights of the model (like Anthropic did that one time for Opus)
- For example they could do this and then withhold the cyber-capable modules from the public https://alignment.anthropic.com/2026/modular-pretraining/
- Unlearning has to be robust, but that sounds hard to judge, so I'll err on the side of YES and so if it's unclear whether the unlearning is robust then the market resolves YES, but if the unlearning is obviously not robust (someone publicly restores capabilities, company says they literally just did GradDiff, etc) then the market resolves NO.
- Capabilities have to actually be dangerous.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 51% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027??
- Está previsto que Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Within a year we might get open source models with the cyber capabilities of Mythos.