Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?
6.0 pts (24h)One-OffPolíticaUS PoliticsElección2a
KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aproximadaProbabilidad implícita actualGavin Newsom 22.2%-3.0ptLíder entre 10 opciones
Calidad del mercado
54 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
2,1 mil €
Liquidez
20 mil €
Liquidez mediaCompra / Venta
7.1% / 15.0%
Spread
7.9 pt
Spread amplioDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 minutos
16 sept 25, 21:007 nov 28, 4:59
Tendencias
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
Josh Shapiro11%
Tendencia de volumen
$2.4k2 jul17d de datos28 jul
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If Gavin Newsom is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office.
- The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance.
- Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify.
- The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.
- If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.