Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

One-OffPolítica US Politics Elección2a

KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aproximada

Probabilidad implícita actual

Rahm Emanuel 77%

Líder entre 33 opciones

Calidad del mercado

44 / 100

Baja calidad

Volumen 24h

0 €

Liquidez

4,4 mil €

Liquidez media

Compra / Venta

23.0% / 28.0%

Spread

5.0 pt

Spread amplio

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 15 minutos

21 may 26, 21:001 nov 28, 3:59

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero

Resultado elegido

Gavin Newsom23%

Apuesta (USDT)

Reglas

If Gavin Newsom is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office.
The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance.
Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify.
The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Tendencia de volumen

$79

2 jul17d de datos23 jul

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Activos en estos temas

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EthereumETH$1,885.34-4.20%

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XRPXRP$1.06-4.59%

BNBBNB$566.00-1.46%

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Reglas

A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office.
The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance.
Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify.
The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

One-OffPolítica US Politics Elección2a

KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aproximada

Probabilidad implícita actual

Rahm Emanuel 77%

Líder entre 33 opciones

Calidad del mercado

44 / 100

Baja calidad

Volumen 24h

0 €

Liquidez

4,4 mil €

Liquidez media

Compra / Venta

23.0% / 28.0%

Spread

5.0 pt

Spread amplio

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 15 minutos

21 may 26, 21:001 nov 28, 3:59

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero

Resultado elegido

Gavin Newsom23%

Apuesta (USDT)

Reglas

A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office.
The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance.
Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify.
The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Tendencia de volumen

$79

2 jul17d de datos23 jul

Mercados Relacionados

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2,1 mil €

Josh Shapiro: 11%

KALSHI

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

631,6 mil €

James Fishback: 3%

KALSHI

Presidential Election Winner 2028

409,1 mil €

JD Vance: 20%

POLYMARKET

Ohio Governor winner?

349,7 mil €

Vivek Ramaswamy: 50%

KALSHI

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

237,5 mil €

Gavin Newsom: 19%

POLYMARKET

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

156,4 mil €

Nicolás Maduro: 82%

POLYMARKET

Activos en estos temas

BitcoinBTC$63,501.22-2.60%

EthereumETH$1,885.34-4.20%

SolanaSOL$73.38-3.89%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0703-3.34%

XRPXRP$1.06-4.59%

BNBBNB$566.00-1.46%

Noticias Relacionadas

Polymarket odds swing: Eizenkot hits 51% as Israel campaign kicks offBlockchain.News

Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News

White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk

Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News

White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph

Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as Epstein files critique hits tapeBlockchain.News

Reglas

A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office.
The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance.
Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify.
The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.