Will the US announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops from Europe by the end of 2026?
Política de EE. UU.One-OffGeopolíticaEuropa2m
FutuurComprobar disponibilidadDatos de resolución verificadosProbabilidad implícita actual
No 89%
No 89%Calidad del mercado
31 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
325 €
Baja liquidezTraders
9
Comentarios
1
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 minuto
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
US to announce withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2026?
FutuurNATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by which date?
PolymarketIf NATO troops fight in the Ukraine war, will Russia use a nuclear weapon?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will deploy troops to Ukraine in 2026?
FutuurNATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027?
PolymarketReglas
This market aims to predict whether the United States will announce a reduction of its military personnel presence in Europe by at least 50% (approximately 32,832 people, as of the personnel report for June 2024 by the Defense Manpower Data Center) before December 31, 2026, at 23:59 (UTC-3).
- For this market to resolve as "Yes", the White House, the Department of State, or the Department of Defense must make an official announcement.
- For this market’s purposes, the official announcement will be sufficient to resolve the market to “Yes”, regardless of the practical implementation of the troops' withdrawal by the referred date.
- If multiple partial announcements are made, their total troop withdrawal figures will be cumulative.
- If the required reduction is met across multiple statements before the deadline, the market will resolve as "Yes."
- Reports by reputable news outlets and by the US Congressional Research Service may also be used as secondary sources to resolve this market and detail the number of military personnel members set for withdrawal.
