PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 97%+24.1pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$84.2
Low liquidityBid / Ask
2.7% / 4.0%
Spread
1.3 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 4, 26, 4:02 PM UTCSep 13, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Hurricane Lowell category?
KalshiWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
KalshiWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
PolymarketWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketWill a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a named tropical cyclone make landfall in Delaware, Maryland, or Virginia between June 1 and November 30?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hurricane Lowell makes landfall in Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and September 12, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
- A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
- Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
- If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $274.9K
- 24h Vol
- $267.9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
- 94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
- 90° to 91°-36.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
- 82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
- 79° or below-4.0pt3.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes-7.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $77.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.2K
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
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- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
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- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Hurricane Lowell make landfall in Hawaii??
- Polymarket prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Hurricane Lowell make landfall in Hawaii? resolve?
- Will Hurricane Lowell make landfall in Hawaii? is scheduled to resolve on September 13, 2026.
- How is Will Hurricane Lowell make landfall in Hawaii? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hurricane Lowell makes landfall in Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and September 12, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET.