This market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 23, 2026, 8:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current implied probabilityHong Wang 100%+3.4ptLeader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$125.1K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+1.6 pts
Market data
Updated 3 days ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 7:00 PMJul 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Will Sawin1%
Hong Wang94%
Vesselin Dimitrov0%
Sam Raskin0%
Aleksandr Logunov0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Hong Wang
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall65% match · verified | Low | 100% | — | $15.8K | $78.6K | 4 days ago | Open → |
 PolymarketThis pageMost active | Low | 100% | — | $125.1K | $0 | 3 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?
3.9 ptsClosed
Resolved
Hong Wang (100%)
+3.9pt100%
+4.8pt100%
+2.5pt100%
+7 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$166.7K
24h Vol$15.8K
KALSHIRules
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide.
- It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years.
- The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.
- If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.8k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal? — Yestianjiyuyunzhilu5d ago
POLYMARKETWill Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal? — Yestianjiyuyunzhilu5d ago$1.1k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? — YesSweetChariot5d ago
POLYMARKETWill Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? — YesSweetChariot5d agoVolume trend
$125.1kJul 223d of dataJul 24
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The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide.
- It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years.
- The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.
- If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.