KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Hong Wang (100%)
Resolved: Jul 23, 2026, 6:08 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 23, 2026, 5:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Settlement provenance
- Standing outcome
- Hong Wang
- Recorded
- Jul 27, 2026, 7:00 AM
- Observations
- 1
- Revisions
- 0
- Method
- resolution_watch
Current implied probabilityJacob Tsimerman 100%+3.9ptLeader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$15.8K
Liquidity
$78.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
99.2% / 100.0%
Spread
0.8 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 3 days ago
StaleMar 27, 25, 2:00 PMDec 31, 26, 3:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Yu Deng99%
Jacob Tsimerman100%
Jack Thorne0%
Alexander Efimov0%
Will Sawin0%
Aleksandr Logunov0%
Sam Raskin0%
John Pardon100%
99%
100%
0%
0%
100%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Jacob Tsimerman
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 100% | — | $15.8K | $78.6K | 3 days ago | |
 PolymarketMost active65% match · verified | Low | 100% | — | $125.1K | $0 | 3 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?
3.4 ptsClosed
+3.4pt100%
+2.4pt100%
+3.1pt100%
+8 more outcomes
48 • Low qualityTight spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$879K
24h Vol$125.1K
POLYMARKETRules
If Hong Wang wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Jacob Tsimerman wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Yu Deng wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Jack Thorne wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If John Pardon wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Sam Raskin wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.8k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal? — Yestianjiyuyunzhilu4d ago
POLYMARKETWill Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal? — Yestianjiyuyunzhilu4d ago$1.1k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? — YesSweetChariot4d ago
POLYMARKETWill Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? — YesSweetChariot4d agoVolume trend
$15.8kJul 222d of dataJul 23
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If Hong Wang wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Jacob Tsimerman wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Yu Deng wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Jack Thorne wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If John Pardon wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Sam Raskin wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.