When will AI solve another Frontier Math Problem?
One-Off1mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityBefore 2027 73%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.5K
Liquidity
$2.2K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
41.0% / 42.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Jul 28, 26, 12:00 AMSep 1, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before September66%
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Rules
If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At the time of issuance, TWO FrontierMath: Open Problems have been solved by AI (a Ramsey-style problem on hypergraphs & The 2-adic Absolute Galois Group); for the purpose of this market, additional AI models subsequently solving the same problem will not count.
- If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.