PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Oct 26, 2026, 6:40 AM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:29 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
James Bond 36%+0.5ptLeader of 11 outcomes
James Bond 36%+0.5ptMarket quality
12 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$230.3
Liquidity
$44.3
Low liquidityOpen interest
$89.2
Comments
0
7d Change
-12.5 pts
Market data
Updated 3 days ago
StaleOct 17, 26, 9:09 PM UTCOct 26, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Probability Timeline
Genius100%
Roadster100%
SpaceX100%
Tesla100%
James Bond25%
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency47%
Canyon46%
Evel Knievel0%
Flying Car49%
Legal49%
Rocket28%
James Bond36%
GeniusWon
RoadsterWon
SpaceXWon
TeslaWon
Bitcoin / Crypto / CryptocurrencyLost
CanyonLost
Evel KnievelLost
Flying CarLost
LegalLost
RocketLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between October 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count.
- Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full.
- (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.)
- Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context.