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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

0.3% (24h)One-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine18d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 4%
Market quality

64 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$3.1K

Liquidity

$49.2K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

3.5% / 3.9%

Spread

11.4%

Wide spread
7d Change

+0.6%

Market data

Updated 9 minutes ago

Dec 17, 25, 10:45 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes4%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
  • Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
  • The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative.
  • Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
  • Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
  • The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative.
  • Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.