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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?

2.5% (24h)One-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine18d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
June 30
June 30 6%-2.5%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality

52 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$1.5K

Liquidity

$18.1K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

5.0% / 6.0%

Spread

20.0%

Wide spread
7d Change

-2.0%

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Nov 27, 25, 12:44 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
December 31
December 31
0%
January 31
January 31
0%
March 31
March 31
0%
February 28
February 28
0%

Selected outcome

June 306%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following:
  • A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-endorsed framework.
  • An official U.S.–Ukraine announcement — defined as an official government-issued declaration, such as a joint statement, communiqué, or coordinated official releases, explicitly stating that Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework.
  • The announcement must be issued through authorized government channels, including official written releases or formally published transcripts by the White House, State Department, Office of the President of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following:
  • A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-endorsed framework.
  • An official U.S.–Ukraine announcement — defined as an official government-issued declaration, such as a joint statement, communiqué, or coordinated official releases, explicitly stating that Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework.
  • The announcement must be issued through authorized government channels, including official written releases or formally published transcripts by the White House, State Department, Office of the President of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs.