PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probabilityJuly 31 6%-0.5ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
57 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$40.1
Liquidity
$9.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
5.1% / 5.9%
Spread
0.8 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+1.3 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
May 4, 26, 11:52 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
6%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· July 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 6% | — | $40.1 | $9.8K | 12 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi80% match · verified | Low | 32% | — | $21 | $1.4K | 32 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Will Trump order mandatory pre-release federal review of AI models?
1mo
32%
14%
40 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$8.1K
24h Vol$21
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models.
- A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government.
- Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process.
- Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$40Jul 225d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models.
- A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government.
- Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process.
- Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify.