This market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 25, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current implied probabilityJuly 31 100%+8.9ptLeader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$57.2K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
99.0% / 100.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+18.5 pts
Market data
Updated 2 days ago
StaleProbability Timeline
Super Heavy booster explodes?100%
August 3199%
July 2351%
Successful splash down?66%
July 2462%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· July 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 100% | — | $57.2K | $0 | 2 days ago | |
 Manifold Markets88% match · verified | — | 100% | — | — | — | yesterday | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
When will Starship flight 13 happen?
Closed
+0.3pt100%
+0.6pt100%
+0.9pt100%
+27 more outcomes
Community forecast111 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$5.1k99.9%POLYMARKETWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? — YesTaut-Witness-Scraper3d ago
POLYMARKETWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? — YesTaut-Witness-Scraper3d ago$2.0k99.9%POLYMARKETWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? — Yesaviato3d ago
POLYMARKETWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? — Yesaviato3d ago$5.0k99.9%POLYMARKETWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? — Yesaviato3d ago
POLYMARKETWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? — Yesaviato3d ago$1.4k99.9%POLYMARKETWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown? — Yes1walrus3d ago
POLYMARKETWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown? — Yes1walrus3d ago$7.1k99.9%POLYMARKETWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31? — Yes1walrus3d ago
POLYMARKETWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31? — Yes1walrus3d ago$5.2k99.8%POLYMARKETWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31? — YesAgricultureSecretary3d ago
POLYMARKETWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31? — YesAgricultureSecretary3d ago$1.4k85.4%POLYMARKETWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? — YesHakei.11d ago
POLYMARKETWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? — YesHakei.11d ago$8.9k98.8%POLYMARKETWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16? — Yesnoreasapa11d ago
POLYMARKETWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16? — Yesnoreasapa11d agoVolume trend
$57.2kJul 224d of dataJul 25
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This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13.