OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?
1.0 pts (24h)ExchangeTechOne-OffAIEquitiesCorporate ActionsBusiness & Corporate3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Meta 82.2%+1.0pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$2.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
17.0% / 18.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
May 19, 26, 6:44 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for December 31, 2026.
- NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
- If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027.
- If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available.
- If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
- If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
