PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 32-34M
Resolved: Oct 17, 2026, 3:13 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
32-34M
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 18, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
32-34M76%
30-32M0%
34-36M0%
36-38M50%
38-40M6%
40M+1%
<30M0%
32-34MWon
30-32MLost
34-36MLost
36-38MLost
38-40MLost
40M+Lost
<30MLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tom Scott's "This Video Has X Views" video have more than 80M views before Grand Theft Auto 6 releases?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the number of views the Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer video gets in the first 48 hours after being posted on the Rockstar Games YouTube channel.
- This market may not resolve until the 48 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- The resolution source for this market is Rockstar Games' YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@RockstarGames), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.
- If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration.
- Note: This market refers only to the "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" video posted by Rockstar Games (see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rz1B4B2yBZY).