PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 99%+0.3%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$61.4K
Liquidity
$66.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
82.0% / 83.0%
Spread
1.2%
Tight spread7d Change
-10.5%
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jul 1, 26, 10:49 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3199%
Large trades
$1.0k19.6%POLYMARKETWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026? — Nowhatamidoingg11h ago
POLYMARKETWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026? — Nowhatamidoingg11h agoVolume trend
$61.4kJul 220d of dataJul 22
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus.
- Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants.
- Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.