Current implied probability
1.15–1.19ºC 100%+3.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2.5K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
7d Change
-4.7 pts
Market data
Updated 17 days ago
StaleMay 26, 26, 11:35 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
1.10–1.14ºC0%
1.25–1.29ºC0%
<1.10ºC0%
>1.29ºC0%
1.20–1.24ºC0%
1.15–1.19ºC100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· 1.15–1.19ºC
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall82% match · auto | Low | 99% | — | $12.5K | $80K | 11 days ago | Open → |
 PolymarketThis page | Low | 100% | — | $2.5K | $0 | 17 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Jun 2026 temperature increase?
Closed
Resolved
1.03 to 1.09 (99%)
+1.0pt91.7%
1.9%
+1.0pt1.9%
+3 more outcomes
38 • Low qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidity
Total Vol$128.1K
24h Vol$12.5K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
- An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
- If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
- If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.2k99.7%POLYMARKETWill global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026? — NodevoteeOfBeshaba18d ago
POLYMARKETWill global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026? — NodevoteeOfBeshaba18d agoVolume trend
$2.5kJul 38d of dataJul 10
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This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
- An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
- If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
- If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.