Current implied probability
1st hottest 61%+14.0%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.6K
Liquidity
$8.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
21.0% / 38.0%
Spread
81.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Jul 6, 26, 6:49 PMJul 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
1st hottest61%
Volume trend
$2.6kJul 73d of dataJul 9
Related Markets
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
$1.6KYes: 24%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Global Average Temperature July 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
$61.7July 2026 less than 1.095C: 8.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
$40.4Yes: 23%KALSHI
KALSHI
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
$23.81.15–1.19ºC: 48%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETGlobal Average Temperature June 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
$0June 2026 less than 1.095C: 0%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
SpaceX Starship 13th launch?
$8.6KBefore August: 78%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
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This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
- Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
- If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
- If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.