Current implied probability
1.20–1.24ºC 84.5%-3.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.7K
Liquidity
$12.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 9.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spread7d Change
-4.5 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jun 9, 26, 5:14 PMAug 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
1.20–1.24ºC87%
Volume trend
$1.7kJul 523d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
- An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
- If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
- If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.