KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: 1.03 to 1.09 (99%)
Resolved: Jul 16, 2026, 4:39 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 16, 2026, 3:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Settlement provenance
- Standing outcome
- 1.03 to 1.09
- Recorded
- Jul 17, 2026, 6:11 PM
- Observations
- 1
- Revisions
- 0
- Method
- resolution_watch
Current implied probability1.03 to 1.09 91.7%+1.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
38 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$12.5K
Liquidity
$80K
High liquidityBid / Ask
- / 100.0%
Market data
Updated 10 days ago
StaleMay 27, 26, 2:00 PMJul 16, 26, 3:59 AM
Probability Timeline
1.02999 or below1%
1.03 to 1.0999%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
91.7%
1.9%
0.9%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· 1.03 to 1.09
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 99% | — | $12.5K | $80K | 10 days ago | |
 Polymarket82% match · auto | Low | 100% | — | $2.5K | $0 | 16 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.4 ptsClosed
Resolved
1.15–1.19ºC (100%)
+3.0pt100%
-0.1pt0%
-2.9pt0%
+3 more outcomes
24 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$88.6K
24h Vol$2.5K
POLYMARKETRules
If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Jun 2026 is below 1.03, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Jun 2026 is between 1.03-1.09, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Jun 2026 is between 1.10-1.16, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Jun 2026 is between 1.17-1.23, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Jun 2026 is between 1.24-1.30, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Jun 2026 is above 1.30, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.2k99.7%POLYMARKETWill global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026? — NodevoteeOfBeshaba18d ago
POLYMARKETWill global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026? — NodevoteeOfBeshaba18d agoVolume trend
$12.5kJul 215d of dataJul 16
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Rules
If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Jun 2026 is below 1.03, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Jun 2026 is between 1.03-1.09, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Jun 2026 is between 1.10-1.16, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Jun 2026 is between 1.17-1.23, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Jun 2026 is between 1.24-1.30, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Jun 2026 is above 1.30, then the market resolves to Yes.