Current implied probability
83° to 84° 40.8%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
76 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$21.2K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
42.0% / 43.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Jul 26, 26, 2:00 PMJul 28, 26, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
83° to 84°42%
Compare venues· 83° to 84°
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Gemini
Highest temperature in NYC on July 27, 2026?
22h
41.1%
38.1%
11.7%
+2 more outcomes
36 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$103
24h Vol$103
GEMINI
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in NYC on July 27?
6h
39.3%
30.8%
19.6%
+8 more outcomes
75 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$14.6K
24h Vol$14.6K
POLYMARKETRules
If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 27, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 81°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 27, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is between 81-82°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$21.2kJul 262d of dataJul 27
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If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 27, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 81°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 27, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is between 81-82°, then the market resolves to Yes.