Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Geopolitics
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probabilityDecember 31 100%+2.0ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$22.9M
Liquidity
$5.6M
High liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+9.7 pts
Market data
Updated 93 days ago
StaleFeb 28, 26, 2:40 PMMar 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
December 3199%
April 3096%
April 15100%
June 30100%
May 15100%
April 7100%
March 70%
March 150%
March 310%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· December 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 100% | — | $22.9M | $5.6M | 93 days ago | |
 Manifold Markets80% match · auto | — | 100% | — | — | — | 95 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by which date?
Closed
100%
100%
100%
+3 more outcomes
Community forecast34 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
- A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
- This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
- Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
- A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
- This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
- Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.