Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by…?
GeopoliticsManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current community forecastMay 15 100%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
34
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 96 days ago
StaleFeb 28, 26, 7:48 PMApr 22, 26, 7:32 PM
Probability Timeline
March 70%
March 150%
March 310%
May 15100%
June 30100%
December 31100%
0%
0%
0%
100%
100%
100%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· May 15
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall80% match · auto | Low | 100% | — | $22.9M | $5.6M | 94 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 100% | — | — | — | 96 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by which date?
Closed
+2.0pt100%
+6.3pt100%
100%
+6 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$100.6M
24h Vol$22.9M
POLYMARKETRules
Resolves same as Polymarket:
- https://polymarket.com/event/iran-x-israelus-conflict-ends-by
- Please note: 14 day period must start before end date, not finish.
- If conflict ended on March 6 and there was a 14 day period of no conflict until March 20, March 7 and 15 would resolve yes on March 20 when the period has finished.
- Full rules: This is for your convenience.
- Rules may be clarified further, check Polymarket if so.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Resolves same as Polymarket:
- https://polymarket.com/event/iran-x-israelus-conflict-ends-by
- Please note: 14 day period must start before end date, not finish.
- If conflict ended on March 6 and there was a 14 day period of no conflict until March 20, March 7 and 15 would resolve yes on March 20 when the period has finished.
- Full rules: This is for your convenience.
- Rules may be clarified further, check Polymarket if so.