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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. Iran closes its airspace by...?
Iran closes its airspace by...?

Iran closes its airspace by...?

1.6% (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
December 31
December 31 79%+11.5%
Leader of 12 outcomes
Market quality

73 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$698.6K

Liquidity

$65.3K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

8.1% / 9.8%

Spread

21.0%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

December 3179%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between June 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region.
  • A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region.
  • Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify.
  • Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$61,994.00+0.32%EthereumETH$1,636.70-0.31%SolanaSOL$64.12-1.43%DogecoinDOGE$0.0838-1.33%XRPXRP$1.11-2.42%BNBBNB$591.05-0.28%

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between June 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region.
  • A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region.
  • Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify.
  • Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).