Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory (Higher Strikes for Tisza)

2.0% (24h)6d

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Market quality 63 • Medium qualityThin market

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Decision support

Current implied probability

Tisza <9% 37%

Market quality

63 / 100

Medium quality

Bid / Ask

36.0% / 38.0%

Market data

Updated 25 minutes ago

Last updated: Apr 5, 10:33 PM

Resolves

Apr 12, 2026, 12:00 AM

24h Volume

$742.5

Liquidity

$74.6K

Spread

5.6%

Moderate spread

7d Change

Medium liquidityThin marketHigh ambiguity

Started Mar 31, 2026, 8:04 PMEnds Apr 12, 2026, 12:00 AM

Trends

No chart data available.

Outcome24hChance

Tisza <9%

-2.0%37%

Other

-21%

Tisza 9-12%

+0.5%13%

Tisza 15-18%

+0.5%12%

Tisza 18%+

+0.5%11%

Tisza 12-15%

+0.5%11%

Rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

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Topics

Politics

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