PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityThomas Chalifoux 74%+2.0%Leader of 21 outcomes
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$50
Liquidity
$28.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
72.0% / 76.0%
Spread
5.6%
Moderate spread7d Change
+0.5%
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Dec 23, 25, 10:44 PMAug 18, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Thomas Chalifoux74%
Compare venues· Thomas Chalifoux
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 74% | +1pt | $50 | $28.1K | 5 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi88% match · verified | Low | 69% | -4pt | $0 | $5.4K | 1 minute ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
FL-09 Republican nominee?
1y
69%
7%
6%
+7 more outcomes
40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$7.5K
24h Vol$0
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S.
- House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
- If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
- Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$50Jul 310d of dataJul 13
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This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S.
- House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
- If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
- Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.