PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 100%
Market quality
79 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$10.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
99.6% / 99.8%
Spread
0.2%
Tight spread7d Change
+1.7%
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Dec 23, 25, 10:46 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
100%
0%
Selected outcome
Yes100%
Also available on Manifold Markets
ECB rate hike in 2026?
6mo
97.9%
2.1%
Community forecast15 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$9.5K
24h Vol$1.2K
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
- If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
- If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.