What are the current odds for Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026?

Polymarket prices S&P 500 at 53% as of September 1, 2026.

When does Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 resolve?

Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.

Where else is Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 listed?

The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets.

Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026

1.0 pts (24h)BitcoinOne-OffCrypto Equities Exchange Stablecoin Binance Commodities4mo

PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current implied probability

S&P 500 53.4%-1.0pt

Leader of 3 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.

Market quality

74 / 100

Medium quality

24h Volume

$587.9

Liquidity

$69.2K

High liquidity

Spread

1.0 pt

Tight spread

Comments

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Dec 22, 25, 5:41 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM

Outcome24hChance

Related Cryptos

BitcoinBTC$77,204.80-2.22%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the the named outcome with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset.

The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles).
The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch.
The resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00.
The percentage change in the the named outcome will be calculated by comparing the official the named outcome Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official the named outcome Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026?: Polymarket prices S&P 500 at 53% as of September 1, 2026.
When does Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 resolve?: Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
How is Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 settled?: Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the the named outcome with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset.
Where else is Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 listed?: The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets.

Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026

Prediction Source Comparison

Frequently asked questions

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