Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 22, 2026, 8:34 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastGold 31.7%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 days ago
StaleFeb 3, 26, 3:00 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Gold32%
Compare venues· S&P 500
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall97% match · auto | Medium | 67% | — | $135.1 | $69.4K | 1 minute ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 51% | — | — | — | 19 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
4.0%5mo
67%
+4.0%17%
17%
72 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$863.3K
24h Vol$135.1
POLYMARKETRules
Resolves according to https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-vs-gold-vs-sp-500-in-2026.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Related Cryptos
Related Markets
Bitcoin above ___ on July 12?
$648.3K54,000: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in July?
$451.3K↑ 62,500: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
BTC price on Jul 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
$412.7K$64,000 or above: 55%
KALSHI
KALSHIBTC price on Jul 12, 2026 at 12am EDT?
$384K$64,000 or above: 86%KALSHI
KALSHIBTC price on Jul 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
$344.5K$64,500 or above: 48%KALSHI
KALSHIWhat price will Bitcoin hit on July 11?
$188.4K↓ 64,000: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket pegs BTC above $52K at 99.95% as July 12 ladder pivots near $64KBlockchain.News
Bitcoin analysts predict $300,000–$500,000 price in 2029. The math says noCoindesk
Polymarket prices 99.95% BTC above $52K July 12 after NH bond rejectionBlockchain.News
Bitcoin price prediction July 2026: The Fed decides at month-endCrypto News
Bitcoin’s Smoothed MACD Flips Bullish—Here Are the Levels That Could Confirm an UptrendBlockchain Reporter
Bitcoin Treasury Firm Empery Digital Dumps Nearly Half of BTC Holdings for $87 MillionDecryptRules
Resolves according to https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-vs-gold-vs-sp-500-in-2026.