Current implied probability
No 95%+0.0pt
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$85.3
Liquidity
$2.1K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
2.0% / 7.3%
Spread
5.3 pt
Wide spread7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Apr 2, 26, 7:54 PMDec 31, 26, 5:00 PM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes5%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 95% | +90pt | $85.3 | $2.1K | 10 minutes ago | |
 Futuur88% match · auto | Low | 96% | +91pt | $0 | $655.8 | 30 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Futuur
Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026?
5mo
96%
4%
32 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$1
24h Vol$0
FUTUURRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a quantum-resistant protocol upgrade is activated on the Bitcoin mainnet.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- To qualify, the upgrade must satisfy all of the following: - The upgrade must constitute a consensus-layer change to the Bitcoin protocol that is live and enforced on the Bitcoin mainnet by the deadline.
- Proposals, drafts, code releases, miner signaling, node adoption, or activation on testnets or alternative networks do not qualify on their own. - The upgrade must enable the use of a post-quantum-secure signature scheme for standard Bitcoin transactions on the Bitcoin mainnet.
- The scheme must be intended to provide meaningful resistance against quantum attacks on transaction signing (e.g., attacks against ECDSA or successor schemes).
- Purely theoretical proposals, wallet-level changes, off-chain solutions, layer-2 systems, or other non-consensus-layer mitigations do not qualify. - The upgrade must make such quantum-resistant transaction types valid under Bitcoin consensus rules and generally available for use on the Bitcoin mainnet, even if their use is optional or not yet widely adopted.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$85Jul 96d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a quantum-resistant protocol upgrade is activated on the Bitcoin mainnet.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- To qualify, the upgrade must satisfy all of the following: - The upgrade must constitute a consensus-layer change to the Bitcoin protocol that is live and enforced on the Bitcoin mainnet by the deadline.
- Proposals, drafts, code releases, miner signaling, node adoption, or activation on testnets or alternative networks do not qualify on their own. - The upgrade must enable the use of a post-quantum-secure signature scheme for standard Bitcoin transactions on the Bitcoin mainnet.
- The scheme must be intended to provide meaningful resistance against quantum attacks on transaction signing (e.g., attacks against ECDSA or successor schemes).
- Purely theoretical proposals, wallet-level changes, off-chain solutions, layer-2 systems, or other non-consensus-layer mitigations do not qualify. - The upgrade must make such quantum-resistant transaction types valid under Bitcoin consensus rules and generally available for use on the Bitcoin mainnet, even if their use is optional or not yet widely adopted.