Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffSociety & Culture1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.4%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 23, 26, 5:06 PM UTCFeb 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "Dario probably doesn't believe in superintell..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
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Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a Disaster is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt44.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt29.7%
- <40-7.0pt13.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.5K
- 24h Vol
- $29.4K
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane89%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Renoir84%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $7.9K
- 24h Vol
- $6.7K
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $21.1K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.3K
- 24h Vol
- $287.1
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? resolve?
- Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2028.
- How is Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.