Current community forecast
Yes 67.4%
Forecasters
41
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 11, 24, 2:06 PM UTCSep 12, 34, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
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KalshiRules
As judged by Scott Aaronson https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=8310.
- If Scott does not publicly express an opinion before the resolution date, I will email him to get his take.
- If he cannot or will not answer, and the resolution is unclear, I will do my best to get expert opinions.
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 67% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade resolve?
- Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade is scheduled to resolve on September 12, 2034.
- How is Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As judged by Scott Aaronson https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=8310.