Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 77.1%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleAug 19, 26, 10:02 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a Metal Gear Solid movie release by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Luffy reveal "Gear 6" or a new major physical transformation in One Piece by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Luffy find the One Piece in 2026?
Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiHighest grossing movie in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, in the official canonical One Piece manga written by Eiichiro Oda, Luffy achieves or uses a transformation explicitly named "Gear 6", "Gear Sixth", or "Gear VI" (or the Japanese equivalent such as ギア6 / ギアセクス / ギア シックス) before the series officially concludes.
- If the One Piece manga ends without Luffy ever using a transformation officially designated as "Gear 6" (or its equivalents), this market will resolve to NO.
- Resolution Details:
- Source of Truth: Official Shueisha Weekly Shonen Jump releases and/or official One Piece manga volume tankōbon.
- Anime-only episodes, non-canon movies, video games, promotional materials, or fan works do not count toward a YES resolution.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $398.4K
- 24h Vol
- $106K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $212.1K
- 24h Vol
- $105.5K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+7.0pt45%
- Jack Barton-5.0pt20%
- Callum Turner-5.0pt18%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+24.1pt46.2%
- No Bond chosen-1.5pt19.8%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $307.5K
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-51.0pt16%
- Above 408%
- Above 50-57.0pt7%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $99.8K
- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will we have luffy gear 6 within the end of the series??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 77% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will we have luffy gear 6 within the end of the series? resolve?
- Will we have luffy gear 6 within the end of the series? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will we have luffy gear 6 within the end of the series? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria